Latest Honolulu resale statistics showing signs of improvement

The May 2009 Honolulu real estate resale statistics came out this past week.  Looking at the numbers at first glance, the report revealed some interesting information which has been little discussed.  Not considering the median sales price, the number of single-family home sales has increased this year.  The month of May saw 225 homes closed up from 189 in April and up from January at 122.  Normally a real statistician, which I do not claim to be, looks at seasonally adjusted numbers.  On the mainland, there is definitely lines of activity throughout the year because of weather and summer vacation from school.  Thus there is a substantial slow down in sales during the winter months and a real uptick over the Summer months.  Hawaii is of course different.  We do see an uptick over the Summer, but December and January seem to be a good month as well for activity.  Fall can be a little slower just like February, but we do not have distinct lines of activity like other places.  So, even though most people would look solely at the year-over-year numbers and compare May 2009’s 225 sold homes with May 2008’s 263, a decline of approximately 14.5%, the entire economy is a completely different animal than what it was last year.  The real test now is if the stimulus package, the first time home buyer tax credit and the low-interest rates are working.  I would conjecture that a 16% increase in the number of homes sold from April and a 45.8% increase from January’s dismal 122 homes sold can be looked upon as a truly hopeful sign.  It certainly will take some time to show if this is indeed working, but going into what is normally a busier real estate time of year, I suspect the numbers will only improve.